How to read a GoalCast prediction

Every match on GoalCast comes with a row of percentages. This guide explains what they are, where they come from, and how to use them without fooling yourself.

The three-colour bar

The bar on each match shows the model's probability of a home win, a draw and an away win. They always add up to 100%.

A 55% home win is not a promise. It means that across a hundred similar matches, the home side should win about 55 of them, and fail to win 45. You can see every upcoming match on the predictions page, or sorted by a single market such as match result or both teams to score.

Fair odds

Fair odds are simply 1 divided by the probability. A 50% chance is fair odds of 2.00; an 80% chance is 1.25.

A bookmaker's price is only worth taking if it is higher than the fair odds. If the model says 1.25 and the bookmaker offers 1.18, the bookmaker is keeping the difference.

One distribution, every market

GoalCast does not predict each market separately. It builds one grid of scoreline probabilities per match and reads everything from it: the result, double chance, goal totals and correct score. That is why the numbers never contradict each other. Open any match to see the full grid.

Safe tips are not sure things

A safe tip is the most likely selection in a match, shown only when the model rates it at 80% or higher. On matches the model had never seen, about six in seven landed. One in seven did not. Stack five of them into an accumulator and the chance that all five land falls to roughly half.

Check the record yourself

Nothing here asks to be taken on trust.

• The results page lists every settled prediction, losses included.
• The model page compares the model with the bookmakers. The bookmakers are still ahead, and the page says so.
• Each league has its own page with standings and top scorers, for example the Premier League or La Liga.

Use the probabilities to compare matches and to spot prices that look wrong. Do not use them as a reason to stake more than you can afford to lose.